Cannabis Financial Projections
How you decide whether to expand, how much to raise, and what to tell a lender. Only useful if the assumptions underneath are defensible.
Projections are how you decide whether to expand, how much to raise, and what to tell a lender. They are only useful if the assumptions underneath them are defensible.
We build models on operating reality: yield per square foot, cycle time, sell-through by category, wholesale price compression, and — critically — the actual tax burden a licensed operator carries rather than a generic effective rate.
What's Included
Why This Differs In Cannabis
Two things break generic models. First, price compression in maturing markets is steeper than most operators plan for — Oregon and Colorado both taught this expensively. Second, the tax line. A model applying a 21% rate to net income will understate the real burden badly, and if you are raising against that model, you will discover the gap at the worst possible moment.
A forecast holding today's prices flat for five years is not optimistic. It is wrong.
Why MCA
We have served licensed cannabis operators since 2015 — one of the first firms in the country to build a practice around it — and we have worked with more than 100 operators across 30+ states. Cannabis is all we do, and all we have ever done.
Frequently Asked
We are pre-revenue. Can you still model us?
Yes — we build from comparable operating data in your market and license type.
Will investors accept these?
They are built to be defended assumption by assumption, which is what sophisticated investors actually test.
How often should we update?
Quarterly if you are raising or expanding, annually otherwise.